Keir Starmer’s allies are urging him to block Andy Burnham from running in the Gorton and Denton byelection, after the Greater Manchester mayor declared his intention to stand, setting up a potential fight for the prime minister’s political future.
Burnham said on Saturday he wanted to contest the seat after the sitting MP, Andrew Gwynne, said he intended to stand down.
Burnham’s allies – including ministers, MPs and trade union chiefs – say that as one of the country’s most high-profile and popular Labour politicians, he must be allowed to fight the seat and attempt a return to parliament.
But with the Manchester mayor having made no secret about his leadership ambitions, those close to the prime minister were on Friday night urging him to take steps to prevent Burnham standing.
“If Keir doesn’t make the call [to block Burnham], it’s game over,” said one.
Another added: “Andy’s candidacy is not going anywhere. It will cost too much to fight the Manchester mayoralty and there is no guarantee we would win it.”
The fight over Labour’s future crystallised on Saturday evening, when Burnham submitted his application to run in the seat alongside a letter to the party’s ruling national executive committee (NEC).
He wrote in the letter: “I see this byelection as the frontline of that fight for the Manchester Way and I feel I owe it to a city which has given me so much to lead it from the front, despite the risks involved.”
He said he wanted to run a “hopeful and unifying” campaign. If selected, he would face strong challenges from Reform UK and the Green party.
The NEC could meet as soon as Sunday morning to decide whether to let Burnham resign from the mayoralty and to put himself forward to the local party for selection as their candidate.
While NEC members are free to cast their votes however they wish, the prime minister’s allies have a majority on the committee and are expected to vote against Burnham should those around Downing Street make it clear that’s what they want.
One person with knowledge of the committee’s processes said: “There are significant cost implications to having a mayoral selection and byelection, it’s reasonable to expect mayors to serve their term.”
The byelection was called this week after the resignation of the former minister Gwynne, who announced he was standing down because of ill health. Gwynne sat as an independent after being suspended from Labour over offensive WhatsApp messages.
It has long been rumoured that Burnham would mount a bid to replace Gwynne. Days before the party’s conference in Liverpool last year, Burnham told the Telegraph that Labour MPs had contacted him over the summer, asking him to stand, after becoming concerned at Starmer’s growing unpopularity.
Polling suggests Starmer is one of the least popular Labour prime ministers ever and Labour MPs are increasingly concerned about how his leadership will impact May’s local elections.
In his letter, Burnham said Greater Manchester faced a “direct threat” to “everything [it] has always been about from a brand of politics which seeks to pit people against each other”, perceived as a reference to the growth of the populist right.
Some polling has suggested Burnham is the only Labour candidate who could see off a challenge from Nigel Farage’s party.
Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, and Labour’s deputy leader, Lucy Powell, both told the Fabian Society’s conference on Saturday that Burnham should be allowed to stand.
Khan told the event in central London: “I’m a firm believer in the best team having all the talent playing for them, and if Andy wants to return to parliament, I will try and make some time between now and the byelection to knock on some doors for him.”
Meanwhile Powell, who represents the neighbouring Manchester Central constituency, said the NEC should be wary of blocking Burnham from standing.
She said it should be up to Burnham and party members in the constituency whether he is allowed to be the Labour candidate. She praised Burnham as “incredibly popular” and as having changed Manchester “for the better”.
She said: “It should be up to Andy and the local members who will select their candidate, and our members are very discerning.”
Powell also acknowledged Labour could easily lose to either Reform or the Green party if the wrong candidate was selected.
“In that context, I always want to see the very best candidate, the person who can most help Labour win in that very difficult byelection,” she said. “I want to see the best candidates come forward and be able to come forward and help us win.”
Health secretary Wes Streeting, perceived as Burnham’s biggest rival for the leadership should Starmer be deposed, refused to say whether he would support Burnham’s candidacy.
“This is a decision for the party, not for the cabinet,” he said. “I have been told in no uncertain terms that is my answer to the question. This is a really critical byelection. We have to work hard to earn people’s trust and to earn every vote. We want the best possible candidate for that byelection.”
However, he added: “In the last day or so, without having indicated whether he wants to run, I’ve seen some pretty unkind things said about Andy, as usual from people who don’t put their names on this sort of briefing.
“I think that is a disgraceful way to treat someone who is a Labour mayor, part of our team and part of our movement.”
Two members of the government have now said they think Burnham should be allowed to run. Energy secretary Ed Miliband, who led the party between 2010 and 2015, said: “I very much hope the local party will have the option of selecting Andy Burnham as the candidate.”
Miatta Fahnbulleh, parliamentary undersecretary of state in the housing, communities and local government, said: “We’ve got the fight of our lives on our hands to beat Reform, which we have a moral duty to the country to do, and we need our best team on the pitch.
“So if he wants to put his hat in the ring and if he can persuade his members and persuade the electorate to bring him in then I think he would be an asset.”
Other ministers believe it would be a mistake to allow Burnham to run.
“I know No 10 is inept but surely they are not inept enough to allow a man to enter parliament for the sole purpose of challenging the prime minister,” one said.
Another said that it would be a “big decision” for the national executive committee, who will have to consider the prospect of a costly mayoral byelection.
“If he stands, it will be to go on the backbenches until the prime minister decides to give him a role,” one Starmer ally added.
“These are the facts he needs to consider. There is no vacancy for leader if that is where his ambition lies. Very few in the PLP [parliamentary Labour party] would welcome the distraction of any talk of a leadership challenge.”
Another backbench MP added: “We are gearing up for crucial elections across the country. We really don’t need a Burnham circus taking resources away – he needs to put the party before personal ambition for a change.
“Besides, a mayoral byelection would cost around £5m. It simply wouldn’t be right to cut short his term in this way.”