In all the years I’ve spent predicting the Oscars, I can hardly remember a season that felt so competitive until the very last minute.

Several major categories, including most of the acting races, still feel like tossups heading into the Oscars on Sunday. Adding to the uncertainty is the academy’s new initiative to make sure voters actually watch all the nominated contenders, which could have real implications in some of the tight contests.

This year, Oscar ballots were synced to the academy’s screening app, with entire categories grayed out until a voter was logged as having finished every nominee in that race. While members could check boxes to attest they had viewed the other contenders, many people I spoke with admitted that those tweaks had effectively guilted them into watching more movies.

Does that benefit a best-actor contender like Ethan Hawke, whose small indie “Blue Moon” was sampled more than it would have been otherwise? Or will the effect be felt more in specialized categories like documentary feature, which busy voters may have skipped en masse, leaving the ultimate decision to the die-hards who watch everything?

With all those thoughts swimming in my mind, here are my tentatively offered projections in each category.

Best Picture

“Bugonia”

“F1”

“Frankenstein”

“Hamnet”

“Marty Supreme”

✓ “One Battle After Another”

“The Secret Agent”

“Sentimental Value”

“Sinners”

“Train Dreams”

Widely considered one of the greatest directors of his generation, Paul Thomas Anderson has received 14 Oscar nominations (including three this year), though he has never won. This year, voters finally appear ready to welcome the auteur into their canon.