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People looking up at trees in bloom, which are protected by plastic fencing.

When Will Japan’s Cherry Blossoms Bloom? A.I. Can Help Answer That

Experts use artificial intelligence to analyze data, plus thousands of crowdsourced photos, to forecast the prized flowers, which are a multibillion-dollar attraction.

Visitors gathered beneath cherry blossoms at Ueno Park in Tokyo last week.

When Will Japan’s Cherry Blossoms Bloom? A.I. Can Help Answer That

Experts use artificial intelligence to analyze data, plus thousands of crowdsourced photos, to forecast the prized flowers, which are a multibillion-dollar attraction.

Listen · 5:13 min

Cherry blossom season is typically a carefree time of year in Japan, when families gather for picnics under blooming trees and friends meet for nighttime “flower viewing.”

For Hiroki Ito, a data scientist and meteorologist who specializes in the high-stakes art of predicting the exact date that the trees will bloom, it has always been a time of stress. Japan’s prized cherry blossoms generate an estimated more than $9 billion in tourism and other revenue each year. Airlines, hotels and restaurants depend on the forecasts — not to mention the 123 million Japanese who want to know when to head to parks and gardens for peak bloom.

“It’s a lot of pressure; I feel the weight of history,” said Mr. Ito, who has worked at the Japan Meteorological Corporation in Osaka, one of the main providers of cherry blossom forecasts, for more than a decade. “I’m a little frightened of spring. I can’t fully enjoy it.”

Video
An app developed by Japan Meteorological Corporation uses A.I. to forecast when cherry blossom trees will bloom.CreditCredit...

Now, Mr. Ito and other experts are turning to a tool they hope might reduce some of the burden of forecasting: artificial intelligence. They are using A.I. systems to analyze decades of temperature data, and to deliver maps and “bloom meters” for trees in more than 1,000 spots, which blossom at different times.

This year, forecasters are crowdsourcing photos from the public and feeding them into A.I.-powered databases that can track the growth of buds, which form in the summer, stay dormant through the winter, and take anywhere from two to four weeks to blossom after turning green in the spring.


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